West Nile virus: 124 deaths in 2007. SARS: 8 cases, zero deaths in 2003. Mad cow disease: not one death confirmed in American history according to the CDC. These diseases, which often affect less developed countries more harshly, always seem to dominate headlines and capture the attention of the national Zeitgeist. Sometimes it takes a flashy, animal name like monkey pox or avian flu.
Less likely to be reported, but consistently deadlier, is appendicitis, which killed 453 Americans in 2006, a figure which is par for any given year as provided by Vital Statistics of the United States. As an appendicitis survivor, I wonder why my disease does not sell newspapers.
Fred Vultee, assistant professor in the Wayne State journalism program and researcher in news media’s response in conflict and crises, said, “News has a bias for the new. So a lot of times, a newer message will squeeze out an older one even if the older one is more relevant.”
On the role of the media in health crises, he added, “The media ought to [provide] accurate, timely, not-too-emotionally-loaded information so people can make good decisions that reflect their interests.”
But Vultee warns, “The media also have to make enough money to bring you the number of stories every day that they can produce. So not only do they have to attract your attention, but they may have to squeeze a health story out because some other crisis looks bigger and closer.”
Essentially, the saying “if it bleeds, it leads,” may have to be amended with, “if it coughs, don’t scoff.” We’ve sat through unnecessary coverage before, and the media has embarrassingly blown its cover with apocalyptic stories of pandemics upon pandemics, so what are we to make of this recycled meme’s most recent incarnation?
In an 87-page document made for the executive branch of government titled Report to the President on U.S. Preparations for 2009 H1N1 influenza, released on Aug. 7 by the President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology, two stark conclusions are made.
The first is that an estimated 30,000 to 90,000 Americans will die during the flu season starting anywhere from the end of this month to the middle of October. The second is that, unlike a typical flu season where most fatalities are humans with compromised or otherwise weakened immune system — those younger than 2 or older than 65 — the swine flu is five times more likely to afflict those under 24 than those aged 25 to 49, and 20 times more likely than those 65 and older; as in, the cavalier, the young and indestructible, those most likely to ignore symptoms just because.
According to the U.S. Census Bureau, there are roughly one million people in the U.S. under the age of 24 in 2009. Taking a middling estimate of 60,000, swine flu deaths this fall, and assuming that age-based cases hold true, this year about one in every 10,000 people under the age of 24 will die of swine flu. Is this a lot? Well, allowing a healthy margin of error, it is roughly the same rate as suicide and twice as frequent as drowning.
Meaning, of all things, that for every drowning, two young people will die by their own hand and two young people will die of swine flu (Figures provided by CDC & The Disaster Center).
So is swine flu for real? Despite the media using their old tricks, the answer is yes. While Vultee points out that even diseases such as SARS and mad cow disease kill very few people, they can be terribly disruptive epidemics that require mass quarantines or the slaughter of hundreds of thousands of livestock.
Vultee offers an informed take. “The short answer is still yes,” he said. “Swine flu is for real. Some of the best stuff we can do is offer well-reported, even-toned evidence, [and] avoid falling for news routines that don’t help.”
So, wash your hands, and don’t believe everything you read.
